The Arabian sea branch is all ready to host the first system of 2021 of the Indian Ocean cyclone season. The system is more likely to become a Cyclone in the next 72-96 hours.
As a result, Kerala and Karnataka are likely to experience heavy to extremely heavy rainfall from 14th of this month. The consensus on the track among numerical models is yet to be decided. But slowly patterns indicate the system to integrate much closer to the Indian coastline and the feeder bands are likely to result in the heavy downpours over Kerala and Coastal Karnataka. This system was much feared to affect the flow in the Bay Branch of the Indian monsoon. But recent forecasts seem optimistic.
Weather is expected be warm over Tamil Nadu and Chennai over the next 3-4 days. There is a minimal chance of showers over isolated regions in Tamil Nadu during the development phase of the New system.