After the trough which pounded many parts of TN, a small break is insight. Rains are expected to take a break in Tamil Nadu from 19/20 November until 24th November as HPA (High pressure area) from central India is expected to descend down, bringing dry weather.
MJO (Madden Julian oscillation)
MJO has entered into phase two (Indian Ocean). This will turn conditions favorable for the previous trough which impacted TN, to develop into a proper system (low pressure/possible depression) in Arabian sea and move away from Indian mainland.
With MJO expected to stay in our basin, we can expect Bay of Bengal to throw up first proper system (Low pressure) of NEM 2020 between November 22-26 which may impact Tamil Nadu after November 24th. With conditions seem favorable, this system has chance to intensify. More information on this will be posted later.
Forecast for Chennai city and rest of Tamil Nadu
Isolated rains expected to continue over city till 19th November early morning after which dry weather is expected to prevail until 24/25th November.
Scattered heavy rains are expected to continue in south and central Tamil Nadu until 19/11/2020, after which small break likely.