Cyclonic storm “BulBul” has taken shape in Central Bay of Bengal and is currently being steered North North West onto West Bengal and North Odisha coasts based on initial model estimates. Threat of heavy rains and winds pose a greater problem for the coastal communities on this stretch over the weekend. Over the west coast, Cyclone Maha has weakened into a Depression and would dismantle further before giving slight rains over Coastal Gujarat. Elsewhere in Northern Plains, wintry climes are setting in for the first time as minimum temperatures are expected to drop below normal by 2-3C even as Snow is forecast in higher reaches and patchy showers in plains.
Hazy and dry weather in greater sense would prevail across large tracts of Tamilnadu barring western and southern interiors of the state where scattered thunderstorms would break out in many places by evening. With moisture aplenty and unstable wind patterns dominating, rains are a surety in these places. North East Monsoon is certainly subdued under this complexion with Coastals deprived of any meaningful rains until next one week or so. Though rainfall deficits would not be alarming leading into the fortnight, extended break would come as a spoiler for the overall monsoon numbers. Late November and early December is now crucial and if forecasts are anything to go by, monsoon revival prospects are good.