The Deep Depression over Southwest and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal is very likely to intensify into a Cyclonic Storm “Nivar” by today and into very Severe Cyclone by tmrw(IMD).
Models continue to dispute over the landfall position due to handling of Ridges and WD interaction despite the fact that we only have 24 – 48hrs left for landfall.
As we all know, Bay of Bengal systems are the most difficult to predict with so many parameters in play. There are potentially two scenarios shown by models as of now.
Scenario 1 : Landfall between Chennai to Pondy around Mahabs
Scenario 2 : Landfall between Cuddalore – Nagai.
As per GFS, scenario 2 is likely to prevail as it predicts the Arabian Ridge to dominate and the system will have a more westerly trajectory.
As per ECM and ICON, scenario 1 is likely to prevail as it predicts the pacific ridge to dominate and the system will have a more North westerly trajectory.
The systems projected movement will be completely based on the ridges as noted above
Despite the models differing on projectories, it’s a requisite that entire Tamil Nadu/South Andhra coast must be under high alert and be prepared for heavy rains and surface winds between Nov 24 – 26.