Northeast monsoon 2020 has been seeing time to time Easterly waves hitting the TN and SAP coasts which has been keeping the monsoon active and also providing good rains along the coastal areas to keep the NEM 2020 scorecard ticking.
A trough in the easterlies with a circulation over the Equatorial Indian Ocean has been circulating moisture towards the coasts providing heavy rains over Coastal TN and adjoining South Coastal AP since yesterday. This is likely to continue today too with heavy rains expected over North TN coast. Good lower level Convergence and upper level divergence is likely to make the storms intensify and sustain for a longer time.
Chennai and suburbs are likely to see good spells of rains during the morning hours. Delta Coast is likely to experience heavy rains today as the day progresses with the convergence slowly shifting down. Interior areas will also start seeing rains from today as the trough moves further inland. The pumping moisture from the easterlies coupled with some day time heating are likely to trigger good Thunderstorms in the Interior areas.
Looking into a larger scale, we can clearly see the MJO has very well entered P2 and the suppression has moved into Maritime continent and West Pacific. The enhanced Easterlies in the 850hpa levels over WPAC is a clear indication of the above scenario. The MJO is likely to stay in our basin in the coming weeks which will aid the possibility of development of weather systems over the Arabian Sea and the BOB which can be dealt later.