Cyclone Vayu has been skirting alongside the Guj/Saurashtra coasts , dumping some rain, creating some surge as well and weakening away. The Arabian sea branch of the monsoon is still behind schedule and hopefully should catchup soon. Also as the MJO makes transition slowly into the maritime continent it tends to keep the bay active – weather models indicate that there is a possibility of a monsoonal low evolving in the eastern branch which would help in the further progression of the monsoon.
With the monsoon rains lashing along the Malabar coasts under the influence of an offshore trough, there is a possibility of isolated rains over the west and interior south Tamil Nadu, needless to say there would be some spells in the western ghats too. After a long wait there is a good environmental support with reasonably good atmospheric instability over Northern TN – particularly in and around Chennai in the coming days. Hot mornings followed by isolated convective thunder showers cannot be ruled out.