Yes, the much awaited, anticipated, talked about Monsoon of our region (North east monsoon) is just few hours away. NEMR (NORTH EAST MONSOON RAINFALL) period as per IMD calculations is set to begin in all earnest.
Deep inside, its an understatement, if we do not accept that we are nervous, anxious and eager to see how it unfolds this year. Few questions within ourselves Will it follow the same pattern of last few years, Will it fulfill our expectation. The adrenaline is just on a high. We are all aware that NEM is one of the toughest one to foretell, give a outlook as the monsoon performance sees a high variability each passing year and posses a tough challenge even for the well seasoned meteorologists of the country.
This retreating monsoon, an unique of its kind, more of a system driven monsoon which caters to a restricted region compared to the SWM flow which spreads far & wide, across the country and contributes a major share to the economy and agriculture. NEM too is very important for the economy as the rains are very important to the delta regions of TN and South AP which gets a major share of it. We have almost had good or above normal NEM starting from 2005 till 2011. The years that followed have been a disappointment though we had a stupendous one in 2015 and to a lesser extent in 2017.
There is more suspense this year cos of various factors, SWM dazzling show across the country and still on adds up to the excitement of the retreating one also to follow suit and fulfill the monsoon thirst. This adds up to mystery of what’s is in store. Lot of theories floating around that, TN by & large gets normal or excess rainfall if its an + IOD year as seen in the past. The recent memory of 2015 comes to our mind though it had that winning combo of a strong Elnino. Each year is different and no set patterns sometimes work accordingly and this is where NEM stands alone, apart as the most sought after precipitation is just dependent on the systems track and intensity and not just on how active the bay waters are. A few degree deviation in the track? Intensity makes or mars our hopes of a reasonable monsoon.
Coming back to our blog and how we are going to respond to the situation we may face in the coming months is an interesting scenario indeed. The bloggers count and comments have increased with more number of silent watchers than before. Every year, the excitement hits the roof top just before the onset and hopefully we show some restraint and be patient towards the happenings in the next few months. It’s a certain fact that at least 95% of the bloggers would want a repeat of 2005/2015 and it goes without saying that majority of the comments are invariably linked to it. We have had years when easterlies have set it early, as early as first week of October and NEM setting in late by 23rd of 25th of October. Our monsoon has never been short of surprises, A poor or average October being compensated by superb November many a times and few times a very good October and a very average November. The years 2012 & 2014 comes to our mind instantly..
Its often said that, what is NEM without its regular share of BOB cooking up few strong systems. The debate keeps on going..Whether we need strong systems or it is just about enough if we have few LPa or WML to quench our monsoon thirst. There are few hard core weather enthusiast who would prefer a strong system to come our way to have a real feel of NEM. There are few who would just say, I’m more than happy with weak systems which would not travel north and spoil our chances.
So, what’s going to be in store this monsoon…Honestly a tough one to crack as we have seen in the past, that NEM many a times surprises itself rather than the weather followers themselves.
Let’s enjoy our monsoon and with greater restraint and responsiveness as we are more matured now to understand the realities of nature and accept whatever it offers us..
Happy blogging this NEM season and hopefully we stay satisfied at the end of the year.. Cheers!!!