Monsoon likely to be vigorous over most parts of Coastal Tamilnadu and Andhra Pradesh for the next few days. The next few days are most likely to be the Crucial period of NEM to decide it’s fate. With the beloved Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) which is likely to enter it’s Favourable phase for Downpours across the core North East Monsoon regions. The present trough which is embedded in the energy of remnants of Typhoon Goni is likely to produce widespread heavy showers and very heavy downpours are expected over Isolated parts of Coastal TN and SAP. Another Trough is likely to make it’s presence over Bay of Bengal around 15/16 and as a result under it’s influence Heavy to Very Heavy showers are expected in certain parts of East Coastal Peninsula. The Combination of South East Moist winds Have produced Flooding downpours in the past and we’re Hopeful of Another Event around 14/15/16 over parts of TN and AP.
Numerical models hint another major system around 25th of November, Even though it seems to be out of range. We will have to wait and see.
Core NEM regions of TN has had a subdued rainfall in the past few days. Those regions are dependent on December rainfall. More likely they are probably to turn normal by the end of NEM.