It’s almost October 2nd fortnight, one of the most interesting times for weather watchers where we welcome our beloved Northeast monsoon. But, this year is it time yet? The answer is NO. Active Bay and South China Sea is keeping our monsoon onset on a hold.

East west shear zone or ITCZ (macro scale) is still revolving around 15N which is one of the reasons why the pulses from South China Sea enter at a higher latitude. As the pulses also travel in a WNW direction along the ITCZ , the easterlies associated with the system push the moisture from Bay into Inland particularly into Central and adjoining parts of South India which has been keeping the monsoon withdrawal process on a hold.

When it comes to Subtropics, the abnormally strong going TEJ is one of the reasons why the Seasonal HPA has not got a strong hold till now over North and Central India and also adds on for the WNW movement of pulses which has not seen any predominant poleward movement yet.

So, it’s going to be a circulation week for the Bay as one more pulse is going to enter Bay of Bengal around 13th or 14th October. Till then it’s going to be ifs and buts case for our monsoon onset.

Meanwhile, coming up on today’s weather front, the Depression over WC Bay might make a landfall today along the Central AP coast close to Kakinada. Heavy rains can be expected all along the coast from Ongole to Vishakapatnam. TN Thunderstorms might take a break as Westerlies become strong and streamlined on account of the depression. Chennai can get Light to moderate rains if lucky.