Yesterday IMD announced low pressure area (Invest 98B) was intensified into a well marked low pressure area. When we see the multi model forecasts, this is expected to intensity more into a depression in next 24- 36 hrs. When we look into the ocean and atmospheric conditions, favourable SST, MJO and CCKW presence in bay will influence this invest 98B to intensify more into a tropical storm.
Models Expecting a westerly movement steered by lower level easterlies. Once it reaches near Sri Lanka it is expected to take a NW movement, entering GOM (most favourable place for TN)
This system is expected to give widespread very heavy rains for STN delta and north coastal TN from December 2 and later to interior Tamil Nadu. This is expected to increase the TN rainfall statistics more. Overall this system expected to be a Rain Filled System for entire Tamil Nadu.