Well, it’s a most asked question among the weather bloggers and fellow enthusiasts about the upcoming North East Monsoon performance! To get a clear idea we have to analyze the weather charts with our logical understanding which can give us a clear clarity about the current weather dynamics.
For this North East Monsoon we can analyze by watching ENSO conditions, 200Hpa divergence (Upper Level Divergence), MJO progression and IOD conditions.
In the end of October rapid transition gonna takes place where the upper level divergence (200Hpa) will leave MTC zone and expected to set it’s initial phase over EWIO (Equatorial Western Indian Ocean) and at the same time Westerly Wind Burst will weaken gradually ( Equatorial-Indian Latitude) and reverses to Easterly-North Easterly phase.
During 1st week of November the MJO will go to suppressive phase and will be a 1st break phase of our Northeast Monsoon. But the conditions look favorable as the MJO will enter phase 2-3 during 2nd to 3rd week of November as well. So during that phase there is a high probability of system formation over the Bay Of Bengal.
As per the current weather dynamics December looks pretty good as there will be a probability of strong MJO progression over our region.
There is no change in the ENSO condition where we gonna witness weak-moderate La Nina conditions. By seeing the above charts to the logical understanding negative to neutral IOD conditions will prevail and it will boost up warm Sea Surface Temperature over EIO. So by concluding the list of factors, it will be normal to above normal North East Monsoon on the cards.