This year’s NEM specially called as the NEM2020 really gave us the feel of watching a T20 match with time to time thriller runs that kept us on a hot seat for the entire season till now. Post Nivar and Burevi, the Northeast monsoon went into a break phase as drier continental winds from the North took control over the Bay of Bengal and TN since last Wednesday. Due to this, rains took a break and winter like conditions with hazy skies and below normal night time temperatures were observed over most parts of TN.
While the dry weather continues, our favorite NEM is likely to make a comeback in the form of strengthening easterlies from the SCS. This is likely to bring back the rains over TN starting from 16th December 2020. The Coastal area from Delta to Kanyakumari is likely to be the biggest beneficiary from these rains. Prospects for Chennai rains are of ifs and buts case as drier continental air push do the strengthening over Central India. Nevertheless we can look forward to one good spell before NEM2020 winds up.
The MJO is presently lying as a weak signal over the MTC and Pacific. Regarding the progression of MJO, model outputs are diverging into 2 scenarios.
Scenario 1: The MJO will remain weak and continue to move westwards towards the Western Hemisphere bringing suppression over the IO.
Scenario 2: The MJO will loop back to the MTC with a stronger amplitude (P4) providing the final boost to NEM2020.
Now, it’s time for us to sit and watch how the action unfolds.